Parkinson’s cases to surge by 112% by 2050, ageing population fuels rise

More than 2.5 crore people in the world could be living with Parkinson’s disease by 2050, largely driven by an ageing population, according to a study.

Researchers, including those from the Capital Medical University, China, said the projected numbers are a 112 per cent increase from cases in 2021.

Further, cases of the neurological disorder from South Asia are predicted to be the second highest at 68 lakh, following East Asia (over 1 crore), the findings, published in The British Medical Journal, suggested.

The researchers said the estimates could “serve as an aid in promoting health research, informing policy decisions and allocating resources”.

Parkinson’s disease is a neurodegenerative disorder in which one’s movements and balance are steadily affected. The condition can also cause problems with speech, memory and behaviour. Symptoms include tremors in parts of the body and muscle stiffness.

The researchers analysed data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 to estimate prevalence of Parkinson’s disease during 2022-2050 across 195 countries and territories and factors driving cases of the disease.

The authors wrote, “25.2 million people (are) projected to be living with Parkinson’s disease worldwide in 2050, representing a 112 per cent increase from 2021.” Population ageing is predicted to be the main factor driving nearly 90 per cent of the projected cases, they said.

Further, the western Sub-Saharan Africa could be expected to see the most pronounced spike of almost 300 per cent in the cases of the disease, even as East and South Asia could see the highest case numbers.

The men-to-women ratio in Parkinson’s cases could increase from 1.46 in 2021 to 1.64 in 2050 the world over, the authors said.

They also projected that increasing physical activity could reduce the future number of Parkinson’s disease cases.

The results point to an urgent need for “future research to focus on the development of novel drugs, gene engineering techniques, and cell replacement therapies that are aimed at modifying the course of the disease and improving patients’ quality of life,” the authors said.